Michigan’s seven-day average of new cases is now 2,444, a 33% drop from 3,631 a week ago today — and the lowest average since Oct. 28.
The seven-day average positivity rate is now 8.2%, down from 9.4% a week ago. That’s the lowest positivity rate since early November.
However, those declines come with caveats: It could reflect issues with data collection around Christmas and New Year’s holidays vs. a true plummet in transmission rates.
The slowdown in people being tested over over the Christmas holiday weekend — as well as the likelihood testing labs and local public health department were short-staffed in people who report the data — means the numbers are very likely incomplete.
For instance, Michigan was reporting the results of 54,100 coronavirus tests a day during the first three weeks of December. That dropped to an average of 37,179 a day last week.
Below is a closer look at the county-level data, based on the metrics used by the Michigan Department of Heath and Human Services in assessing coronavirus risk levels. The scale used by MDHHS has six levels — “low” plus Levels A-E.
First, a look at the seven-day average positivity rates by county, grouped by the state’s metric.
- Level E (over 20%): Hillsdale.
- Level D (15-20%): Branch.
- Level C (10-15%): 16 counties, highest to lowest — Missaukee, Cass, St. Clair, Saginaw, Ogemaw, Presque Isle, Roscommon, Lapeer, Tuscola, Osceola, Lenawee, Dickinson, Shiawassee, Van Buren, Clare and Montmorency..
- Level B (7-10%): 26 counties, highest to lowest — Macomb, Genesee, Wexford, Monroe, Arenac, Midland, Huron, Ottawa, Jackson, Mecosta, St. Joseph, Newaygo, Oceana, Wayne, Eaton, Bay, Kent, Kalamazoo, Iosco, Alcona, Leelanau, Isabella, Ionia, Livingston, Muskegon, Cheboygan, Berrien, Oscoda, Oakland, Ingham, Kalkaska, Clinton, Barry, Gladwin, Benzie and Mason.
- Level A (3-7%): 19 counties –Allegan, Calhoun, Sanilac, Menominee, Grand Traverse, Manistee, Washtenaw, Chippewa, Montcalm, Alpena, Lake, Crawford, Otsego, Marquette, Antrim, Houghton, Gratiot, Charlevoix and Delta.
- Low (under 3%): 10 counties — Iron, Emmet, Gogebic, Mackinac, Luce, Keweenaw, Alger, Schoolcraft, Ontonagon and Baraga.
The chart below allows you to look up any county by name to see the seven-day average positivity rate for Dec. 21-27.
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New cases per capita
New daily cases per capita is another metric used by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services to access coronavirus risk.
In this metric — which calculates the average number of new cases per 1 million residents — 60 counties are at Level E, the highest risk level on the MDHHS scale. The cutoff for Level E is 150 cases per day per million residents.
The levels for the other 20 counties:
- Level D (70 to 149 cases per million): Gratiot, Iosco, Chippewa, Antrim, Benzie, Marquette, Otsego, Kalkaska, Arenac, Crawford, Wexford, Mackinac, Delta, Cheboygan and Houghton.
- Level C (40 to 69 cases per million): Alcona, Alger, Charlevoix, Luce, Emmet and Gogebic.
- Level B (20 to 39 cases per million): Ontonagon.
- Low (below 7 cases per million): Schoolcraft.
Here is an online database that allows readers to see the number of new coronavirus cases in the past seven days compared to the previous week, as well as the per capita number that adjusts for population. The arrows indicate whether the total number of new cases reported in the last seven days has gone up or down compared to the previous seven days.
MDHHS overall score by region
MDHHS has assigned an overall score to each of the state’s MI Start regions, looking at factors such as new cases and deaths per capita, test positivity rates, number of tests administered and emergency department visits for COVID-19 symptoms.
Since Nov. 4, all eight of Michigan’s MI Start regions have been at the highest level the state uses to assess coronavirus risk.
This interactive map shows those eight regions and their current scores. You can put your cursor over a county to see the underlying data.
(The state’s MI Start districts: Region 1 is the Detroit region; Region 2 is Grand Rapids; Region 3, Kalamazoo; Region 4, Saginaw; Region 5, Lansing; Region 6, Traverse City; Region 7, Jackson, and Region 8, the Upper Peninsula.)
Cases by day of onset of symptoms
The chart below shows new cases for the past 30 days based on onset of symptoms. In this chart, numbers for the most recent days are incomplete because of the lag time between people getting sick and getting a confirmed coronavirus test result, which can take up to a week or more.
You can call up a chart for any county, and you can put your cursor over a bar to see the date and number of cases.
More localized maps
Below are two maps created by the EpiBayes research group at University of Michigan’s Department of Epidemiology, which has access to sub-county data collected by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.
The interactive maps break down the state into 10 kilometer hexogons to provide more a more localized look at where coronavirus cases are occurring. You can click here to get to the research project website.
The first map looks at confirmed and probable coronavirus cases in the past week. You can click on a hexagon to see the underlying data.
You can use the triangle button at the upper right of the map to toggle to the second map, which shows total confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths since the start of the pandemic.
Latest daily report
On Monday, Dec. 28, the state reported 3,239 new cases of coronavirus and 60 new deaths for Sunday and Monday, Dec. 27-28.
The map below shows total confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths since the start of the pandemic. You can put your cursor over a county to see the underlying numbers.
For more statewide data, visit MLive’s coronavirus data page, here. To find a testing site near you, check out the state’s online test finder, here, send an email to [email protected], or call 888-535-6136 between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. on weekdays.
For more data on COVID-19 in Michigan, visit https://www.mlive.com/coronavirus/data/.
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