How we call races on election night 2020

Here’s how NBC News calls races on election night, the steps NBC News takes to verify results, as well as the answers to some frequently asked questions.

Early on election night, the NBC News Decision Desk uses exit poll data to determine if uncompetitive races can be called. Most races are called based on an analysis of precinct- and county-level vote returns. This analysis also examines differences between early and Election Day vote. In close contests, a careful analysis of how much of the vote has not been counted is a crucial part of the process. No race is projected until the Decision Desk is at a minimum 99.5 percent confident in the winner.

NBC News will not project a winner in a race until after the last scheduled poll-closing time in a state.

Here are the key Decision Desk calls and characterizations our audience can expect to hear from NBC News on election night:

Too early to call: This characterization covers two scenarios. The first is that there might be a significant margin for one of the candidates in the race, but we have not yet met our statistical standards to project the race. The second is that there is not enough data to determine the margin of the race with certainty.

Too close to call: The final margin between the candidates will be less than 5 percentage points. The Decision Desk will not use this characterization until we have statistical confidence that the race will be this close.

Projected winner: NBC News has made a projection that a candidate will win the race.

Apparent winner: NBC News has projected that a candidate has won the race, but the results are close enough that the outcome may depend on a potential recount and/or confirmation that the results that have been reported are accurate.

Winner: This designation is used for projecting U.S. House races.

When a party has gained a majority of seats in the Senate, the Decision Desk will project control for that party.

The House Estimate is a projection of the makeup of the U.S. House of Representatives as a whole. The Decision Desk calculates the probability of a Democratic, Republican, or Independent victory in each of the 435 individual House races based on pre-election research. On election night, election analysts examine all the available vote data and adjust the probabilities for each House seat that changes from its pre-election probability. The model then calculates the most probable outcome of the election in the House and an estimate of the probability of error expressed as a number of seats plus or minus.

The Decision Desk will project control of the House for a party based on the House Estimate.

The NEP is a consortium of major news networks — ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC — that pools together resources to gather vote data and exit poll data. The NEP works with the consumer research firm Edison Research to collect timely and comprehensive election data on Election Day and in the following days, weeks and months until results are certified by all states. The NEP licenses data to several news outlets, including Reuters and The New York Times, among others.

Data reporters across the country are talking to local election officials and reporting back raw vote results on a county-by-county basis from the time polls open to close and long after that. The data is supplemented with state and county vote computer feeds and websites, when available.

Using proven probability-based sampling methods, the exit poll is a survey of voters conducted as they exit their polling places. It is the only survey measure of real voters and it is conducted at hundreds of polling places using around 800 interviewers. In-person Election Day voters will be interviewed as they leave their polling places. To account for the high number of early and absentee voters, the exit poll includes extensive interviews with in-person early voters as well as telephone surveys of those who mailed in ballots. Approximately 100,000 total interviews will be conducted.

The NEP has continued to adapt its best practices and refine the exit poll.

Analysts inspect results and look for irregularities or inconsistencies with past voting behavior. If data seems irregular, a rigorous quality control process is triggered to determine if results are correct.

1. Data reporters and interviewers in the field collect the results.

On Election Day 2020, votes will be tabulated in all 50 states and Washington, D.C., for statewide races, ballot measures and all 435 House races. Interviewers also conduct in-person national and state exit polls, the only survey of real voters in the country, measuring who voted and why they made their choices. There will be approximately 3,600 interviewers working for us through the NEP to collect county- and precinct-level votes and to conduct exit polls.

2. Multiple sources provide vote results throughout Election Day.

Data collection is done through multiple sources on Election Day, with data reporters and interviewers across the country calling in results on a timely and rolling basis all day long. Vote data is also collected through state and county websites and feeds.

3. Data is checked for accuracy.

Vote results are rigorously checked and verified. Part of quality control involves checking that vote data is consistent across sources, and we also compare the vote to past election results to see whether the turnout looks extremely different across multiple past races. The Decision Desk vote count analysts, along with computer software, trigger quality control alerts, and any votes that fail the quality control check are reviewed by senior team members.

4. NBC News independently analyzes the data.

NBC News race projections are completely independent of other news outlets. The Decision Desk independently analyzes vote data and exit poll data and uses proprietary statistical models as well as the expertise of a team of experts, most with Ph.D.s, in the areas of data analytics, polling, election administration and political science to interpret the results to decide when races can be projected.

5. Results and projections are delivered quickly

Election Day vote data is made available as quickly as possible, though it is likely in the 2020 general election that vote reporting will be slower than in past elections due to the pandemic. This is largely the result of a massive expansion of early voting in most states. Exit poll results are independently analyzed in real time, and NBC News calls all races as soon as the Decision Desk is at least 99.5 percent confident in a projection.