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A big data analysis of media coverage shines light on COVID-19 impact

globalresearchsyndicate by globalresearchsyndicate
May 14, 2020
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A big data analysis of media coverage shines light on COVID-19 impact
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The financial sector demonstrates strong global interdependence: episodes of finance-related media stress synchronize almost perfectly across geographies, reflecting the high-degree of interconnectedness in the financial markets. The Media Stress Index reflects events such as when Black Monday (March 9th) hit the markets or tensions escalated between Russia and OPEC.

Central banks have stepped to the fore as major players in the implementation of measures to mitigate the crisis; this has been reflected in the media coverage. Where the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve show measured responses, the People’s Bank of China acted sooner, as would be expected, and is benefiting with a clear V-shaped recovery in the general tone of its media coverage.

Media stress falls as confinement measures are eased

Politics is at the center of the debate given its impact on health and the economy. We witness a reduction of media stress associated strictly with political topics as countries begin to relax lockdown measures and there are signs the pandemic is being contained. As the pandemic plays out, politics takes on greater importance (32 percent of topics referenced in articles are related to politics; 31 percent to health, and 19 percent to the economy). The indicator of politically-caused media stress per country also exposes differences: the media stress related to politics has been greatest in the United States and least in China.

According to the publication released from BBVA Research, When will the U.S. economy recover from the infection?, the experience of countries that have transitioned beyond the worst phase of the pandemic suggest that the number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. could peak in the spring or early summer.

Trends in political media stress, before and after confinement, are markedly different per country. Asian countries, the first to suffer the pandemic, do not show signs of media stress associated with politics prior to confinement measures; this stress emerges just after quarantine measures are put in place. In contrast, in European countries — Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom — political media stress is already apparent in the days leading up to the announcement of confinement measures. The absence of this pre-quarantine media stress in the United States is striking, even more so compared to just how prevalent it is in Latin American countries.

As countries tackle how to phase in a ‘quarantine roll-back’, the media’s tone concerning steps taken by the respective governments begins to improve. This more optimistic note might be attributed not only to the assessment of measures taken, but also to the positive direction the pandemic seems to be taking.

Finally, the study compares the tone of national and international media reporting. With respect to Spain and the measures taken by its government, the international press is more negative than the national press. In Italy, Spain, and Mexico, the national press has, on the whole, been less negative than the international media. In the United States, in contrast, the national press is more negative than the international press when reporting on the government’s response to the pandemic.

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