The first quarter of 2020 brought a significant decrease in the value of the Consumer Finance Market Barometer, determined on the basis of the survey of the Association of Financial Enterprises (ZPF) and the Institute of Economic Development of the Warsaw School of Economics (IRG SGH). It currently amounts to 60.7 points compared to 71.6 points recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019.
This is the highest decrease in the barometer value in the history of this study, although the current edition was carried out before the escalation of the situation related to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Such a large decrease is the result of deteriorating assessments of households in terms of the macroeconomic situation, but also an increase in the level of exclusion from the financial market and deteriorating ability to service liabilities.
“Currently, the value of the barometer remains above 50 percentage points but taking into account the fact that the black scenarios regarding the impact of coronavirus on the economy and finances, the true picture of moods will be known only in the next study. It is worth remembering that the financial crisis of 2007-2008 brought a drop in the barometer lasting over four years, but in the initial period the drop was not so rapid,” dr Sławomir Dudek from IRG SGH, chief economist of Employers of Poland, explained.
In the last few studies, the component related to the forecasted financing of major expenses with credit funds had an impact on the improvement of the barometer value. Record levels were also reached in terms of the likelihood of buying a car, durable goods or repair expenses. The current study has not yet brought any declines in this respect – currently the willingness to use the loan has decreased, but the probability of incurring important expenses has slightly increased. However, it should be remembered that this was before the escalation of the epidemic.
(WBJ)
