Buttigieg’s drop since November is a sign of how fluid the top tier of the race remains with just 24 days before the first-in-the-nation primary caucus.
Like the last survey, the three other polling leaders — this time, Warren, Biden and Buttigieg — stand at a three-way statistical tie. If the numbers hold for the caucuses, four contenders will meet the 15 percent threshold needed to win delegates out of the first caucus state. The next closest is Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), who garnered 6 percent support.
The results suggest there may not be a clear winner out of Iowa on Feb. 3. A cluttered finish at the top could complicate the messaging from the campaigns, which typically draw energy and momentum from the caucuses to propel them in the first-in-the-nation primary the following week in New Hampshire, and beyond.
The poll results are reflective of new national momentum for Sanders, who has improbably gained steam since suffering a heart attack, and after winning the endorsement of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). The poll also provides a welcome sign for Warren, who was bunched with the other frontrunners at a time when other data suggested she had fallen behind.
The results did not show any signs of last-minute gasps from lower-polling candidates who have struggled to break into the top tier for months. Andrew Yang weighed in just behind Klobuchar at 5 percent and Cory Booker, whose campaign has been flagging for months, was at only 3 percent. Behind him at 2 percent was billionaire Tom Steyer, who has spent heavily on television and recently qualified for next week’s debate in Iowa, along with Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii).
Roughly one-in-10 voters, 13 percent, said they were undecided or didn’t prefer any of the candidates. But even among the voters who did have a first choice, the race is fluid. Only 40 percent of Democrats who picked a candidate said their mind was made up, while 45 percent said they still could be persuaded to support someone else.
The poll was conducted Jan. 2-8 by Selzer & Co., a well-regarded firm in West Des Moines. The poll surveyed 701 likely Democratic caucusgoers and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
