Holiday sales & tariffs, and, a telling gift survey

WELCOME TO NEW HAMPSHIRE’S BUSINESS, I’M FRED KOCUR. HOLIDAY SALES AND SHOPPERS, I WANT YOU TO SEE SOMETHING. TAKE A LOOK AT THIS. THERE ARE– THIS IS THE RETAIL CHALLENGE AND ACTUALLY SHOPPERS CHALLENGE, TOO. THERE ARE SIX FEWER DAYS BETWEEN THANKSGIVING AND CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR BECAUSE THANKSGIVING AS YOU KNOW, EVERY YEAR HAPPENS ON THE FOURTH THURSDAY OF NOVEMBER, BUT CAN RUN ANYWHERE FROM NOVEMBER 22ND TO NOVEMBER 28TH. THIS YEAR IT’S THE 28TH AND THIS MEANS SIX FEWER DAYS TO SHOP, JUST SO YOU KNOW. NOW, HERE IS SOME DATA ON PREDICTIONS FOR HOLIDAY SPENDING BETWEEN 7:27 AND 730.7. CYBER MONDAY A BIG ONE, 1047. BACK IT WAS 800 AND IT’S GOING UP. >> DISCOUNTS ARE BIGGERS FACTORS IN BUYING. HERE IS A GRAPH THAT SHOWS U.S. RETAIL AND TRADITIONAL RETAIL AND THEN THE RETAIL E-COMMERCE OR ONLINE. THE ONLINE IS THE RED LINE, AND THE TRADITIONAL RETAIL IS THE BLACK LINE. YOU CAN SEE OVER ON THE RIGHT, 2018, THERE WAS A DIP IN SALES, BUT IT’S GONE BACK UP. AT LEAST THE PREDICTION IS IT’S GOING BACK UP THIS YEAR AND YOU CAN SEE 3.8% INCREASE FOR TRADITIONAL RETAIL AND 13.2% INCREASE ONLINE. THAT’S BIG. NOW, HERE IS A PREDICTION ON HIRING, RETAILERS ARE HIGHER BETWEEN 530,000 AND 590,000 TEMPORARY WORKERS AND THEN, LOOK AT THIS. WISH LISTS, AND LOOK AT THE FAR LEFT. WHAT IS THE BIG TICKET ITEM FOR THE SHOPPERS WISH LIST THIS YEAR, IT’S GIFT CARDS. I COULDN’T BELIEVE THAT WHEN I FIRST SAW IT, BUT THERE IT IS AND THEN NEXT TO IT IS CLOTHING, OR APPAREL AND ACCESSORIES, AND THEN BOOKS AND THEN NEXT TO THAT, ELECTRONICS AND SO FORTH. WITH ME TO TALK ABOUT ALL THIS AND MAKE SOME PREDICTIONS ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND THIS HOLIDAY SEASON IS ECONOMIST RUSSELL THIBEAULT OF APPLIED ECONOMIC RESEARCH. WHAT DO YOU SEE? >> I THINK IT’S GOING TO BE A GOOD DEAL FOR RETAILERS AND THEREFORE, A GOOD YEAR FOR SHOPPERS AND A GOOD YEAR FOR GIFT GETTERS. THE PEOPLE THAT GET THE GIFTS. BECAUSE WE’RE GOING TO HAVE ABOUT 5% INCOME GROWTH THIS YEAR, YEAR OVER YEAR, WHICH IS VERY HEALTHY AND CONSUMERS ARE VERY CONFIDENT AND IN FACT, CONSUMERS ARE WHAT’S BEEN KEEPING THIS ECONOMY TICKING ON A PRETTY GOOD NOTE. >> YEAH. >> SO, I THINK IT’S GOING TO BE A GOOD YEAR. THE INCOME GROWTH AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE COMBINE TO MAKE CONSUMERS FEEL GOOD. AS YOU SAID, IT’S A LITTLE SHORTER SEASON SO PEOPLE WILL CLUMP IT MORE INTO A PERIOD OF TIME. >> BUY GIFT CARDS? >> THEY’RE GOOD DEALS BECAUSE YOU CAN BUY THEM AFTER CHRISTMAS WHEN THINGS ARE LESS EXPENSIVE. >> GOOD FOR FIVE YEARS. >> GOOD FOR FIVE YEARS, CAN’T EXPIRE FOR FIVE YEARS. >> NE CAN’T EXPIRE, BUT MAKE SURE YOU USE THEM IF YOU GET THEM. >> LET’S PUT A GRAPHIC UP. HERE IS ONE THAT’S INTERESTING. PREDICTIONS ON HOLIDAY PRICING, AND THE IMPACT OF TARIFFS REMAINS TO BE SCENE. THAT’S ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL RETAIL ASSOCIATION. THEY WERE SUBJECT TO TARIFFS ON SEPTEMBER 1ST AND MORE PRODUCTS THAT ARE GOING TO BE SUBJECT TO TARIFFS ON SEPTEMBER 15TH. ALREADY THE NATIONAL RETAIL FEDERATION SAYS THAT SMALL BUSINESSES ARE FORCED TO RAISE PRICES TO OFFSET COSTS AND THAT, RUSS, THAT’S INTERESTING. SMALL BUSINESS VERSUS LARGE BUSINESS. LARGE BUSINESSES, AGAIN, ACCORDING TO BLOOMBERG BUSINESS NEWS, BOUGHT A LOT OF STUFF EARLY IN THE YEAR TO BEAT THE TARIFFS AND THEY’RE DISCOUNTING TO DO THAT. >> SMALL BUSINESSES MORE SALES, THEIR SALES VOLUME IS A LOT HIGHER, KNOCKING 1 OR 2% OFF. SMALL MOM AND POP, THEY DON’T HAVE THE LUXURY. >> RIGHT. >> SO IT’S A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE LARGE BUSINESSES, AND THEY CAN BUY IN BULK AND KEEP THE PRICES FROM SUPPLIERS DOWN. >> FOR GENERALLY SPEAKING ON THE ECONOMY? >> SO FAR SO GOOD. THINGS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD. ECONOMY IS IN GOOD SHAPE. GDP IS HEALTHY, INFLATION IS NOT TOO BAD. INTEREST RATES ARE LOW SO WE’RE STARTING THE YEAR