Racists patterns in local policing

Benyamin Meschede-Krasa is DefundNPD’s Data Analyst

Institutional racism is built into the structures of policing across our country and Newton, Massachusetts is no outlier. In Newton, we currently rely solely on the police department to analyze and report policing and crime data and thus far they have ignored trends of racist policing. An array of documents containing information about the state of policing in Newton were recently made public when they were shared with the Newton Police Reform Task Force.

Nowhere in our analysis of the phase 1 documents did the police highlight racist patterns policing. Below we describe our analysis of one of these documents, the NPD field interrogations and observations.

Field interrogations are a major way the police interact with the public, either in response to a call or if an officer perceives suspicious behavior. Each field interrogation is documented by date/time, location, race, gender, age, whether it was officer initiated, and the reason for the interrogation. An example of the records for a field interrogation are shown in Table 1.

Table 1. Sample field interrogation record

In total there were 210 field interrogations from September 2015 to May 2020. We grouped them by race/ethnicity and then normalized to the expected number of field interrogations based on the population of Newton using demographics data on the city website. 

Table 2: All field interrogations by Race/Ethnicity. In total there were 210 field interrogations between September 2015 to May 2020. Column 1 contains counts of field interrogations by racial/ethnic group. Column 2 is the fraction of field interrogations for each demographic. Column 3 is the fraction of each demographic in all of Newton. Column 4 is a metric for the level of policing each demographic faces based on field interrogations, calculated by dividing column 2 by column 3. If field interrogations were being conducted propoionally the normalized level of policing would be equal to 1.

Table 2 shows the level of policing faced by major racial/ethnic groups in Newton. We calculated the Normalized Level of Policing for each racial/ethnic group by normalizing the proportion of field interrogations to racial/ethnic group demographics (Table 2). If a group’s fraction of field interrogations was equal to demographic proportion in Newton, the “Normalized Level of Policing” would be equal to one. Values above (below) 1 indicate a higher (lower) number of police interrogations than would be expected based on the population of the racial/ethnic group in Newton. We report that field interrogations are not proportional to the racial/ethnic makeup of Newton, with Black people experiencing 5.99 times, and Latinx people experiencing 1.17 times the expected number of field interrogations. White people, on the other hand, experience 0.82 times the expected number of field interrogations (Table 2).

Figure 1: The Normalized Level of Policing in Newton across racial/ethnic groups highlights higher than expected levels of policing of Black and Latinx people based on the population of those groups in Newton. The expected value of 1 is shown by the dotted line which represents a proportionally unbiased level of policing. See Table 2 for underlying data.

Compared to white people, Black people are 7.3 times and Latinx people are 1.42 times more likely to be interrogated by police.

Officer Volition Exacerbates Racism

When the same analysis is conducted for the subgroup of field interrogations that were initiated by officers, we observe higher levels of policing of Black and Latinx people. Field interrogations can be in response to a call or by an officer choosing to approach and interrogate someone. We explored officer initiated interrogations in order to assess whether the racist patterns observed in Figure 1 could be explained by a high incidence of racially motivated 911 calls. Table 3 describes the 74 officer initiated field interrogations.

Table 3. Officer-initiated field interrogations by race/ethnicity. In total, there were 74 officer-initiated interrogations between September 2015 to May 2020.  See Table 2 for a description of the methods. Expected value for “Normalized level of policing” is 1.

Table 3 demonstrates that police are initiating interrogations with Black and Latinx people at a higher rate than the average over all field interrogations calculated in Table 2. For officer-initiated interrogations, Black people are experiencing 6.94 times, and Latinx people experiencing 1.93 times the expected level of field interrogations. White people, on the other hand, experience 0.77 times the expected number of field interrogations (Figure 2)

 As compared to white people, Black people are 9.01 times and Latinx people are 2.47 times more likely to be interrogated by police when police initiated the encounter. The increased level of policing of Black and Latinx people when officers initiate the interrogations highlights that the biased outcomes stem from racism embedded in NPD. This refutes the claim that racially biased 911 calls are the source of biased policing in Newton, a line used frequently by NPD during FY2021 budget deliberations.

Figure 2: Officer volition exacerbates already higher than expected levels of policing of Black and Latinx people in Newton. Plotted is the Normalized Level of Policing for racial/ethnic groups based on officer initiated field interrogations, which are higher than all field interrogations. The expected value of 1 is shown by the dotted line which represents a proportionally unbiased level of policing. See Table 3 for underlying data. 

These field interrogation data should be qualified in two ways. First, we report normalized proportions of field interrogations based on demographics which assumes each interrogation to be a unique individual. If individuals had multiple encounters with the police and the distribution of those individuals did not align with racial biases found above, then our results could be an overcount or an undercount, depending on the race of the individuals having multiple encounters with police. NPD likely has more information about each field interrogation and may be able to compute the same statistics above, without counting individuals multiple times which would prevent this potential issue. We welcome their analysis of these data that we do not have access to. Second, data on Black and Latinx proportions are likely an undercount because there were interrogations with people of “unknown” race or ethnicity. In our predominantly white city, where whiteness is the norm, it is likely that those labeled as “unknown” are people of color.

The definition of what is “unbiased policing” an or “what is the expected number of field interrogations” can also be further explored beyond the definition given here. We assert that the Newton police should not be interrogating BIPOC more than they are interrogating white people, especially when officers are initiating the interrogations and we believe that is a reasonable expectation of the police force.

Data aggregated by activists at Defund NPD demonstrates that we are spending more than we need to on the police. We pooled data from Newton and 23 representative cities based on criteria of proximity to Boston, total population, and crime rates (Edwards, 2020). The police budgets were found on each city’s website and used to calculate police spending per capita (Table 4, Figure 3). Additionally, we collected data on the 2020 total crime rate to compare per capita spending and crime rates (Table 4, Figure 4)

Figure 3: Police budget per capita in comparable cities in Massachusetts. Newton is the 5th highest spender on police, per capita.

Newton has the highest overall police budget of these cities and is the 5th highest per capita spender (Table 4, Figure 3). By defunding to the median per capita police spending, we would have $4,069,136.08 to spend on life-affirming public safety initiatives. This represents almost double the 10% cut to police spending that DefundNPD called for in the last budget cycle.

Furthermore, per capita police spending is not significantly related to the total crime rate (Figure 4) which questions the assumption that giving police more money directly reduces crime rates. It also questions the assumption that diverting police funding to other public safety institutions would result in a spike in crime. This information urges us to shift the conversation to funding other initiatives that may be more directly impactful on holistic and equitable public safety.

Figure 4: Crime and police spending are not significantly related . Each data point is one of the above listed cities. The blue line is a linear regression with shaded 95% confidence intervals computed via bootstrap. The regression line with a slope of zero lies within the confidence interval, demonstrating that there is no significant relationship between the total crime rate and police spending in the 24 cities analyzed.

Table 4: Police budget, population, and per capita police spending in the 24 representative cities in Massachusetts. Newton is the 5th highest per capita spender and has the highest police budget overall.

In our analysis of the phase 1 documents we found some troubling reports on the Newton police’s activities which raise questions which we hope will be further investigated by the Newton Police Reform Task Force.

Is NPD Policing Homelessness?

On page 4 of the NPD Accreditation Reports by Bureau, the Patrol Bureau reports on the Charles River Task Force which “hopes to deter and prevent crimes, and give people who use the recreation paths for walking and running a sense of security” from the homeless population living along the river. It further states that the police are working with the Department of Conservation and Recreation and have “cleared out trees and other obstacles that helped create a safer and cleaner environment,” presumably in order to limit areas where homeless people can safely sleep with some shelter and privacy. We submitted records requests to the police for reports or data collected on this work but were told that no such records exist. The lack of record keeping on the methods being used to police homelessness is troubling. Many questions remain unanswered:

• Why is the city of Newton addressing homelessness with policing and tree removal?
• How much money has been spent so far in these initiatives and how long has this initiative been in place?
• How is the public safety of homeless people being considered compared to the public safety of walkers and runners?
• What holistic initiatives has the city of Newton taken to address the needs of any homeless people in Newton?
• Are homeless people being criminalized for their survival?

Is NPD’s Directed Patrolling is Racist?

Page 4 of the NPD Accreditation Reports by Bureau also gives some detail on the directed patrolling being carried out by NPD. Directed patrolling seeks to predict areas where crime is likely to occur in order to focus police resources in those areas. This would work if crime could be unbiasedly measured but it is well known that nationally police disproportionately suspect Black and Brown people of committing crimes. Therefore, reported crime may not represent the reality of where crime is occuring. In 2019 there were 7500 more directed patrols than in 2018 (06 – NPD Accreditation Reports by Bureau) and directed patrols made up a majority of police department call logs. A records request for the code or software used for algorithmic prediction of crime were denied. In response to a records request for the variables used for algorithmic prediction of crime, Bureau Commander Steven R. Smith reported that “the basis of directed patrols is determined based on multiple data sets. These include motor vehicle accidents, crime events and special concerns” (Directed Patrolling Records Request). Considering the racially and ethnically biased field interrogations, modelling based on crime events is likely to introduce bias in directed patrolling. Additionally, the vaguely cited “special concerns” may open the door to human introduced biases. Many questions remain unanswered, some of which are

• What methods, models, or algorithms are being used for crime prediction and directed patrolling in Newton? Why are they not publicly available, even upon request?
• Have the methods used for directed patrolling in Newton ever been assessed for racial or ethnic bias by NPD or an external review?
• Are checks in place to limit human introduced bias into the architecture of crime prediction algorithms?
• Are the data used to fit crime prediction algorithms assessed for racial or eithnic bias?
• Have the outcomes of directed patrols been racially or ethnically biased?

Are Police Entering Students’ Homes, Unrelated to Policing?

According to the pages 63-64 of the NPD Accreditation Reports by Bureau, until 2019 police officers were conducting “residency checks” for Newton Public Schools (NPS), presumably to assess whether a NPS student actually lived in Newton. Residency checks included police entering and inspecting resident’s homes for matters unrelated to policing. This is a clear example of a job the police have taken on that is not related to the public safety of people in Newton. Police involvement in residency checks was discontinued due to concerns about officers entering homes to do the checks, but “it is expected [NPD] will once again do the checks in 2020, with a new modified version” (06 – NPD Accreditation Reports by Bureau, 2020). In the Community Services Bureau report for accreditation, no further information is given on how the checks were run, if there were complaints, or what modifications would be made for the residency checks to occur. We firmly believe the police have no role in questioning a student’s residency in Newton, especially by means of invasively entering their living spaces. These are just some questions left unanswered by NPD’s self-reporting:

• How long was NPD conducting residency checks until they were temporarily halted in 2019?
• How were students/families selected for a residency check?
• Were BIPOC disproportionately investigated?
• Were police armed during residency checks?
• Were there any complaints filed by those subjected to residency checks?
• Were police being paid overtime during residency checks?
• How much money has the police spent on residency checks, cumulatively and annually? What is the source of this funding?
• Did the police reinstitute residency checks in 2020?
• What modifications were introduced to justify reinstituting residency checks?
• Are residency checks occuring during the ongoing pandemic and with what precautions?

At the moment we do not have access to data that would elucidate the use of police resources in the three described areas. We hope the Newton Police Reform Task Force will bring light to these unanswered questions.

06 – NPD Accreditation Reports by Bureau. (2020). http://www.newtonma.gov/civicax/filebank/documents/104966

07D – Field Interrogations and Observations. (Sept 2015 – May 2020). http://www.newtonma.gov/civicax/filebank/documents/104976

Directed Patrolling Records Request. (20 Aug. 2020). https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LIPy6l4TPjjPZE7gELOtJVQuzoDTOXB_/view?usp=sharing

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