Key highlights:
- Bitcoin dropped by a total of 1.77% over the past 24 hours of trading as it drops to the $6,310 level
- The number 1 ranked cryptocurrency is still trading within a period of consolidation as it bounces between the confines of an ascending triangle
- As the first quarter closes, we learn that Bitcoin managed to outperform the US stock market in Q1 2020
| ⠀Bitcoin price: | $6,300 |
|---|---|
| ⠀Key BTC resistance levels: | $6,445, $6,570, $6,790, $7,000, $7,225 |
| ⠀Key BTC support levels: | $6,000, $5,800, $5,750, $5,600, $5,500 |
*Price at the time of publication
Bitcoin dropped by a total of 1.77% over the past 24 hours of trading as the cryptocurrency rolled over from the resistance at $6,455. BTC had been struggling to close above this resistance, which is provided by a bearish .382 Fibonacci Retracement level, over the past 3 days .
The cryptocurrency continues to trade within the phase of consolidation that it established since crashing by 50% earlier in the month with the drop to the $4,800 level. The roof of this consolidation pattern is located at $6,800 and Bitcoin must break above this level before we can see some positive price action.
The first quarter of the year closed yesterday and some very interesting figures came out from the close. One of the most important figures was the fact that Bitcoin actually outperformed both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 in Q1 2020. However, let’s not get too happy because the market is still in a very fragile scenario and outperforming these major indices is nothing special when we consider the fact that it only managed to fall less than the rest of the economy – there was still no positive growth for BTC in Q1 2020.
In Q1 2020, Bitcoin dropped by a total of 10% as it trades at the $6,300 level. The S&P 500 dropped by a total of 20%, which makes it the worst quarter since Q4 of 2008 (the last recession). Additionally, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down by a total of 23% this quarter, making it the worst-performing quarter in over 124 years!
Interestingly, as all these aforementioned assets and indices have seen a negative quarter in growth for Q1 2020, the well established safe-haven asset, Gold, has actually beaten all of them and has even seen positive growth. Gold finished Q1 2020 with a price increase of 3.75% as it trades just underneath $1,600.
How to buy Bitcoin (BTC) on Binance
Bitcoin price analysis
What has been going on?
Since our last analysis, we can see that Bitcoin went on to rebound from the lower boundary of the present ascending trend line formation. However, BTC was stopped by the resistance at the $6,455 level over the past 3 days, which caused it to roll over and drop today. This resistance is provided by a bearish .382 Fibonacci Retracement level that is measured from the February high to the March low.
Bitcoin has been bouncing around within this consolidation pattern for the previous 2 weeks and must break above or below to dictate the next direction for the market.
Bitcoin price short-term prediction: Neutral
As Bitcoin is within the triangle, it still remains neutral. A break beneath this triangle is likely to turn Bitcoin bearish. On the other side, Bitcoin must break above the upper boundary and close above the $7,000 level to start turning bullish in the short term.
If the sellers do push lower, the first level of support is located at the lower boundary of the triangle. Beneath this, support lies at $6,000, $5,750, $5,545 (downside 1.272 Fib Extension), $5,384 (downside 1.414 Fib Extension), and $5,150 (downside 1.618 Fib Extension).
If the sellers continue to drive Bitcoin beneath the support at $5,000, additional support then lies at $4,800, $4,4455, and $4,230.
Where is the resistance towards the upside?
On the other hand, if the buyers can regroup and push above the current resistance at $6,445, the first 2 levels of resistance lie at $6,570 and then at the upper boundary of the triangle at $6,800.
Above this, resistance lies at $7,000 (1.272 Fib Extension), $7,225 (bearish .5 Fib Retracement), $7,570, and $7,700 (1.618 Fib Extension). Beyond this, additional resistance can be found at $8,000 (bearish .618 Fibonacci Retracement level).
What are the technical indicators showing?
The RSI is still struggling to break above the 50 level, which shows that the sellers are still not ready to give up control of the market momentum.
Bitcoin Outlook
So, what are the options? Well, seeing as Bitcoin rolled over from the $6,445 resistance, we can expect the coin to continue to drop back into the support at the rising trend line. The important thing would be for Bitcoin to hold this support line as a break beneath it would likely send it crashing down.
If BTC can rebound again from this trend line, we will need to see Bitcoin rising and breaking above $6,445 and $6,800 to break above the triangle. The crucial level to CLOSE above will be the $7,000 level. A break above $7,000 would give me enough confidence to go long into the $8,000 resistance but I would cover myself at $6,800 in case it goes in the other direction.
On the other hand, a collapse beneath the triangle is likely to send Bitcoin down to $5,100 at the very least and possibly even further. I would wait for a close beneath $6,000 before considering any shorts moving forward.
Previous BTC analysis
At CoinCodex, we regularly publish price analysis articles focused on the top cryptocurrencies. Here’s 3 of our most recent articles about the price of Bitcoin:
