MJ Hegar has expanded her lead in an otherwise scrambled contest for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate, according to the results of a University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll released Monday.
But the results are so fragmented and the field still so little known that even if Hegar tops the March 3 primary ballot, she is unlikely to win a majority and avoid a May 26 runoff. Based on the poll, any one of six other candidates bunched together in the survey could plausibly emerge as her runoff rival.
Hegar, a decorated Air Force veteran from Round Rock, had the support of 22% of Democrats polled in a field of a dozen candidates vying for the Senate seat held by U.S. John Cornyn, R-Texas, who is facing four rivals in the Republican primary.
Next up after Hegar is Austin activist Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, at 9%, followed by former U.S. Rep. Chris Bell of Houston at 7%, and former at-large Houston City Council Member Amanda Edwards and state Sen. Royce West of Dallas at 6% each. Houston-area community organizer Sema Hernandez, and Houston attorney and small-business owner Annie “Mamá” Garcia, each had 5% support.
The other five candidates had 2% or less support.
Even Hegar was known to fewer than a third of the Democrats surveyed, 56% of whom initially expressed no preference in the race. The results came only after respondents who said they had not thought about it enough to have an opinion were asked, “If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?”
Even then, 28% named someone other than one of the 12 candidates, and 6% refused to give an answer.
“I think it’s hard to get away from the fact that there are a whole lot of people that are going to make up their minds in the next couple of weeks,” said Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas and co-director of the poll.
Early voting begins Tuesday and runs through Feb. 28.
The internet survey of 1,200 registered voters was conducted from Jan. 31 to Feb. 9 and has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.09 percentage points for the Democratic trial ballots.
