The quarterback class immediately following Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa instantly got more wide open after the Alabama passer declared for the 2020 NFL Draft.
The quarterback-needy teams that won’t be able to draft Burrow or Tagovailoa — the two biggest slam dunks at the most vital position in football in this year’s class — will start extensive research and film study on the 2021 crop of signal callers.
Had Tagovailoa returned to Alabama for his senior season, we would’ve been in for a competition of epic proportions between him, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields to be the top quarterback prospect in the 2021 class. Now, after Lawrence and Fields, it’s anyone’s guess as to who will ultimately be QB3 in next year’s draft class. Remember, 2015 was the last time only two passers went in the first round.
Let’s take a look at the (potential) 2021 quarterback class after Tagovailoa’s decision.
Big-Time Prospects
Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
Lawrence is on track to be the most sought after quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck. Seriously. Burrow may have had the most impressive season we’ve seen at the position in college football history — one year removed from Tagovailoa arguably earning that distinction — but when Lawrence is draft-eligible, he’ll have elements of his profile Burrow didn’t: prototypical size, huge arm, and multiple seasons of high-level production. Lawrence has played light years ahead of his age in his first two years at Clemson when it comes to identifying coverages, getting through his reads, and elevating his play in critical moments.
The Clemson superstar is also a dynamic runner — as we saw in the CFP semifinal game against Ohio State — and truly can make every single throw from inside the pocket and when on the move. He also won’t be 22 until the second month of the regular season during his rookie year.
Justin Fields, Ohio State
Lawrence was the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2018 class per 247 Sports. Fields was No. 2. And the transfer from Georgia to Ohio State was a godsend for the ultra-talented, 6-foot-3, 221-pound quarterback.
In his first full year as a starter, Fields completed 67.2% of his throws at a sizable 9.2 yards-per-attempt average with 41 passing touchdowns to just three interceptions, two of which came in the Buckeyes’ loss to the Tigers in the Fiesta Bowl. He’s not as deft moving through his reads as Lawrence is but isn’t a half-field reader only. As for his arm, Fields is accurate to all levels and flicks it downfield with plenty of velocity. He’s outstanding creating throwing lanes and finding receivers outside the pocket too. Fields can be a weapon in the designed-run game too thanks to smooth athleticism to change directions or simply accelerate in the open field. He’ll be 22 a little less than two months before the 2021 Draft.
Established Veterans
Jake Fromm, Georgia
Fromm entered the 2020 season with a fair amount of first-round buzz, as the heady, pinpoint accurate West Coast Offense type quarterback in the class. A promising start to the season transformed into a disastrous ending, with five of his last six games featuring a completion rate under 50% (!). However, Fromm did distribute the football with good timing and accuracy in the Bulldogs’ win over Baylor in the Sugar Bowl. In general, his accuracy wasn’t nearly as good in 2019 as it’d been in his first two seasons in Athens, particularly down the field. Also, Fromm’s pocket presence took a step back.
He has a few weeks to declare for the 2020 Draft, but returning for his senior season wouldn’t be the worst decision after the type of year he just experienced. What Fromm undeniably will have going for him — his experience. He’s only 21 years old but has already started 42 games at the collegiate level, with most of those outings coming against SEC opponents.
Sam Ehlinger, Texas
Like Fromm, Ehlinger has seemingly been his school’s quarterback for a decade but does have another year of eligibility of he chooses to use it. At 6-3 and 230 pounds, he has legit NFL size but lacks in the arm-strength department and too often chooses to run after not liking what he sees on his first read.
Some teams could like his athletic talents, as he’s proven to be an effective runner while at Texas, and although Ehlinger’s passing statistics did improve in 2019, his play in that area never really elevated him to a level that made many believe he was a top quarterback prospect for the 2020 class.
Kellen Mond, Texas A&M
The tutelage of Jimbo Fisher and the strides Mond, the once run-happy quarterback, made in 2018 created serious buzz for the Texas A&M before his junior campaign.
Potentially one more season in Fisher’s kinda-becoming-old-school pro style offense could be enough for Mond to really resemble a first or second round type quarterback prospect, but we didn’t see that in 2019. His completion rate got up over 60%, but his yards-per-attempt average dipped, as did his touchdown percentage. Mond is a fine athlete for the position — he was the No. 3 dual-threat quarterback recruit in the country in 2017 — and has demonstrated a strong willingness to stand and survey from inside the pocket over the past two seasons. His decision-making, accuracy, and arm strength have to improve in 2020.
Cole McDonald, Hawaii
Another quarterback with a glimmer of first-round buzz before the season, McDonald lit it up in Hawaii’s wide open Air Raid type offense, yet he took his club on a roller coaster ride, especially early in the year, and some of his bad efforts made him look borderline undraftable.
After a four-touchdown, four-interception start to the year against Arizona, the 6-4, 220-pounder with a noticeably strong arm threw 29 touchdowns to just nine picks but had five contests with a completion rate under 60%. The proliferation of the Air Raid offense in today’s NFL will help McDonald, and another super-productive year — he threw for 4,135 yards in 2019 — could put him on the early-round radar.
High-Upside Sleepers In Transfer Portal
Jamie Newman
Newman was dazzling for the majority of the season at Wake Forest, displaying keen pocket-drifting skills, quick field-reading abilities, and tremendous downfield accuracy. He too was awesome as a runner, which, all of that put together made him a fascinating sleeper prospect.
Then, his top two receivers went down with injury, and things got bad in a hurry. Newman completed fewer than 50% of his passes in four of his last five games — after three 70%+ contests earlier in the season — and dealt with some injuries of his own. At 6-4 and 230 pounds with a live arm, Newman is the top quarterback on the transfer portal market and will be immediately eligible to play in 2020.
K.J. Costello
Two years ago, Costello was leading a fun, throwback offense at Stanford to the tune of 29 touchdowns and 11 interceptions with a completion percentage of 66.4% and a nice, 8.6 yards-per-attempt average.
But 2019 was a nightmare for Costello and the Stanford football program. Injuries hit hard, and Costello was only able to play in five games. As a large chunk of his top pass-catching options left for the NFL, his statistics declined across the board. At 6-5 and 220-plus pounds with a big arm and an aggressive, inside-the-pocket style, Costello has pro talent. In the right system in 2020, he very well could reemerge as an early-round quarterback prospect.
Dark-Horse Prospects
D’Eriq King, Houston
King was among college football’s most electric players in 2018 with 36 touchdowns to just six interceptions with a completion rate just under 64% to go along with 14 scores on the ground.
After four games in 2019, he decided to redshirt and return to the Houston program under Air Raid proponent Dana Holgersen. At 5-11 and around 200 pounds, a long windup and not exactly an NFL-caliber arm, King won’t be viewed as the next coming of Lamar Jackson despite his springy athleticism. But given the evolving state of the quarterback position in the pros, King has a better opportunity to get a chance on Sundays now than he would have even five years ago.
Brock Purdy, Iowa State
Purdy has quietly managed the Iowa State offense well for two years now, and he’ll only be entering his true junior season in 2020. While his yardage efficiency dropped in 2019 — losing Hakeem Butler likely contributed to that — the 6-1, 210-pound sophomore upped his touchdown total by nine and threw just two more interceptions on 255 more attempts in 2019 than he had as a freshman.
A true pocket passer, Purdy is a methodical, rhythm quarterback who’s proven to be comfortable in pressure situations. While not boasting a huge arm, he’s been accurate down the field. Purdy’s physical limitations may hurt him during the pre-draft process. His experience and production will be positives on his resume.
Kyle Trask, Florida
The 6-5, 238-pound Trask took the reins of the Florida offense a few games in 2019 and flourished. He completed nearly 67% of his throws at 8.3 yards per attempt with 25 touchdowns and just seven picks.
Because of his size, and the way the ball jumps out of his hand, Trask is the quarterback likely be receive the most draft buzz if he has another strong season in Gainesville in 2020. His coverage reading needs to improve. But, for most of the 2019 campaign, Trask looked like a power forward playing point guard inside the pocket for the Gators.
Tanner Morgan, Minnesota
Morgan doesn’t possess easy-to-see first-round traits at the quarterback position at just 6-2 and 215 pounds with a lower-end arm, but in his first year as Minnesota’s starter, he was consistent and took good care of the football. While throwing to future NFL players Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman — the latter is returning in 2020 — he completed 66.1% of his passes at a hefty 10.2 yards per attempt with 28 touchdowns and six interceptions.
Morgan worked the RPO game well and routinely gave his talented receivers a chance to make a play on the football down the field with well-placed tosses.
