For almost all of 2019, leading altcoin Litecoin (LTC) has suffered from an unrelenting downtrend in price. But during the past month, it has been cautiously outperforming Bitcoin (BTC). Within the market structure of that positive performance, however, it is reaching the limit of how far up it can traverse without breaking the structure. We consider here those limits, and if Litecoin can break them.
Starting with the weekly LTC/BTC chart, we take note of the most recent leg of the long Litecoin downtrend, which has formed a channel since August. Price is clearly coming to the top of that pattern, and will either be rejected or break out of it.
We can also note that volume on Coinbase has increased significantly in the past two weeks, mostly buying. LTC has closed above the 8 EMA for two weeks in a row, for the first time since June (after which it was brutally sold off by 42% over the next month). This histogram has of late taken a flat trajectory up, with some slight tapering in the current week.
If we move to the daily chart with VPVR indicator, we can see that LTC/BTC is currently trading within the highest trafficked trading area of the past several months. Put another way, Litecoin is currently within the inflection zone, which will eventually pop it out either to the upside or downside.
It is clear that Litecoin’s medium timeframe trend is up, although it seems to have completed an initial leg since the year’s start and is now in a corrective period. If it can get above the yellow band of intense trading volume, it will likely get above the downtrending channel resistance.
On the daily LTC/dollar chart, we notice an orderly confluence between the current retracement range, and robust support derived from October’s price action. It seems like a good chance for price to take a breather within this zone and find new support, as it lets the EMAs catch up with it.
Litecoin had a great January, outperforming Bitcoin for the first time in a while. Now, at the limit of its own downtrend – like Bitcoin – Litecoin has a chance to extend those gains into 2020.
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